"25 years ago, no one had blueberries for breakfast"
What do the past 25 years tell us about the future of the global reefer market? Analyst Philip Gray on the reasons for the industry's significant growth and the challenges it faces.
Philip Gray, Reefer Analyst at Drewry, talks about the industry's successes and current challenges.
The fresh produce logistics sector has grown enormously in recent years. This brings with it a whole new set of issues. "What does the future hold for the global reefer market?" was the central question at the first session on Wednesday morning at the Logistics Hub. Traditionally, FRUIT LOGISTICA 2026 opens with a look at ship logistics.
Philip Gray, analyst for the reefer market at Drewry, first looked back to the year 2000 before looking ahead. "The past quarter of a century can help us understand the future and see where we will be in the next five to ten years," he explained. And it has been a good 25 years for the industry. According to Gray, sea transport of refrigerated goods has more than doubled in the last quarter of a century. It grew by 139 per cent – from 60 million tonnes in 2000 to 143 million tonnes in 2025. "In five years, we will be close to 160 million tonnes," the expert predicted.
Bananas dominate the fresh produce business, but according to Gray, exotic fruits are the growth stars: "Bananas have grown by around 69 per cent, vegetables by 185 per cent, but exotic fruits have grown by almost 500 per cent in 25 years." There are several reasons for this veritable explosion: government deregulation in the late 1990s, for example in South Africa and later New Zealand, and new licensing for bananas in Europe, which heralded a new era.
Ahead thanks to the latest technology
However, developments in controlled storage atmospheres in containers have also been crucial. At the beginning of the 2000s, this was still a topic for research and not for practical application. But when the Maersk Group began to push the technology, it became accessible for widespread use. "Twenty-five years ago, there were no avocados in normal European supermarkets. Today, they are standard. Back then, no one had blueberries for breakfast either – but that all changed thanks to new technology provided by the logistics industry," explained Gray.
According to the expert, growth rates were also "incredible" in terms of trade routes, with routes from South America to Asia being the biggest winners. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for cellular container ships was eight per cent. The fleet of refrigerated containers grew by 350 per cent. Container ships have generally become larger over the past 25 years: in 2000, the average size was 1,824 TEU, and in 2025 it was 4,684 TEU.
A positive outlook
And what does the future hold? "We may not see such high growth rates in the coming years," said Philip Gray. Challenges such as tariffs and political instability, diseases affecting certain fruits, and ports reaching capacity limits are manifold. But according to the expert, new technologies, investments and government decisions such as deregulation will also shape the next 25 years. And: "Looking at all these growth figures, we definitely seem to be in the right industry."